The Human Variable 

FEMA’s flood plans overlook infection-associated chronic conditions now affecting one-quarter of U.S. adults. This CYNAERA white paper introduces biologic disaster modeling using US-CCUC™, ESA™, VitalGuard™, and MoldX™ to forecast medical surges from mold, heat, and power loss. Applying these systems could prevent 70 percent of non-trauma ER visits and save $7.4 billion annually in federal costs.

Traditional medicine isolates diagnoses by organ or specialty. CYNAERA’s terrain logic views the body as an interdependent system where immune, endocrine, and autonomic signals co-determine stability. The Playbook applies three key insights from the Primary Chronic Trigger (PCT) Blueprint. Chronic illness begins with temporal ignition, an event that tips an unstable terrain. Chronicity persists when recovery conditions (RC) remain incomplete.

The CYNAERA Primary Chronic Trigger (PCT) framework embeds PEM as a probability-weighted conversion event inside a prevalence model that accounts for viral exposure, environmental load, climate volatility, and recovery suppression. Modeled remission rises from historical 12–18 percent toward 35–50 percent under PEM-aware, terrain-timed designs, with early-intervention subsets reaching 42–60 percent in best-case conditions.

The CYNAERA Primary Chronic Trigger (PCT) framework embeds PEM as a probability-weighted conversion event inside a prevalence model that accounts for viral exposure, environmental load, climate volatility, and recovery suppression. Modeled remission rises from historical 12–18 percent toward 35–50 percent under PEM-aware, terrain-timed designs, with early-intervention subsets reaching 42–60 percent in best-case conditions.

VitalGuard™ is CYNAERA’s flagship environmental risk engine for infection-associated chronic conditions (IACCs) such as Long COVID, ME/CFS, POTS, MCAS, and Chronic Lyme. It transforms real-time atmospheric and environmental inputs into predictive flare scores that can inform FEMA incident operations, NIH-funded clinical trials, and CDC-aligned public health programs.

 After adjusting for significant comorbidity and overlap, we estimate that 65–75 million unique individuals in the United States live with one or more IACCs. This includes approximately 20–25 million individuals with multiple co-occurring conditions. The revised estimates reveal a dramatic undercount across all conditions, particularly for post-viral and neuroimmune syndromes.