The Human Variable 

FEMA’s flood plans overlook infection-associated chronic conditions now affecting one-quarter of U.S. adults. This CYNAERA white paper introduces biologic disaster modeling using US-CCUC™, ESA™, VitalGuard™, and MoldX™ to forecast medical surges from mold, heat, and power loss. Applying these systems could prevent 70 percent of non-trauma ER visits and save $7.4 billion annually in federal costs.

The CYNAERA Primary Chronic Trigger (PCT) framework embeds PEM as a probability-weighted conversion event inside a prevalence model that accounts for viral exposure, environmental load, climate volatility, and recovery suppression. Modeled remission rises from historical 12–18 percent toward 35–50 percent under PEM-aware, terrain-timed designs, with early-intervention subsets reaching 42–60 percent in best-case conditions.

The CYNAERA ESA (Emergency Stabilization Authorization) framework presents a solution. During a declared emergency, ESA enables states and FEMA to pre-authorize qualified clinics to operate as temporary micro-ERs and reimburse those services as emergency protective measures. Critically, ESA does not require new legislation. It strategically aligns existing authorities under the Stafford Act for federal disaster declarations, FEMA Public Assistance Category B for emergency pro

Myalgic Encephalomyelitis/Chronic Fatigue Syndrome (ME/CFS) is profoundly sensitive to environmental stressors. Pollutants such as polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), particulate matter (PM₂.₅, PM₁₀), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), ground-level ozone (O₃), sulfur dioxide (SO₂), and volatile organic compounds (VOCs), combined with weather triggers like heat, cold, barometric pressure swings, mold, humidity, and pollen, drive flares that push patients into cycles of severe disabi

Using CYNAERA’s recalibrated US-CCUC™ prevalence models, which place the U.S. burden between 8.7 million (conservative) and 21.5 million (realistic), the annual economic impact rises to $243–817 billion.

The Global-CCUC™ (Chronic Condition Undercount Correction – Global) model provides a recalibrated framework. By weighting diagnostic suppression, environmental terrain, social protections, clinical awareness, and pandemic burden, it reveals a truer picture: 94–127 million conservative cases and 220–290 million upper-bound cases worldwide.